June has yet to arrive, however I feel quite certain that this year’s election will come down to a campaign between Democrat Senator Barack Obama and Republican Senator John McCain. Senator Clinton is still out there on the trail, trying to sell her backers on what would certainly be a miracle comeback. It is universally agreed that in order for Clinton to win the Democrat nomination, the so-called “Super Delegates” would have to go against popular sentiment and give her the nomination. If this happens, Denver will erupt in riots and demonstrations which will make the 1968 Chicago convention look like a picnic. If the “Super Delegates” instead vote with the public and give the nomination to Senator Obama, it will be interesting to see if Clinton will continue her current “scorched-earth” campaign strategy. It is possible that Clinton will bow out gracefully and quietly leave the political spotlight for now, but I don’t know if she can do that. It just depends on how much she wants to run in 2012.
DEMOCRATS: The luster on Senator Obama has been partially removed in the past few weeks. His most recent mistake of telling supporters that he had visited “57 states”, obviously mis-speaking, has caused his campaign a lot of embarrassment. Also, he showed up recently at a campaign stop wearing a flag lapel pin, even though he insited earlier in his campaign that wearing a flag lapel pin didn’t mean you were patriotic. In other words, Obama is making a lot of errors due to his inexperience in political campaigns.
Two other matters will hang around Obama’s neck like a big, fat albatross: Reverend Wright and William Ayers. Although it is plain to see that the Senator does not actively participate in the separatist movement that Wright heads up or in the armed demonstrations that Ayers has participated in, one must wonder why he associates with these people at all. I mean, Obama actively attended Wright’s church for over twenty years and never objected to anything until very recently, one suspects for political expediency. Further, the Senator is on a first-name basis with an unapologetic domestic terrorist who has admitted to bombing the Pentagon. These associations bring Senator Obama’s judgment and his politics into question. It also makes one question how much influence either or both of these people will have over the next administration should Obama be elected. Far from being elements in some crackpot conspiracy theory, these are legitimate, serious questions which Obama must answer to the voting public’s satisfaction if he is to even have a chance at winning the election.
REPUBLICANS: Senator John McCain’s problems with the Republican base continue, especially with his recent call to arms over climate change. This issue, combined with his positions on immigration reform (pro amnesty) and campaign finance reform (anti-political free speech), will make McCain a very unpalatable candidate for a large number of conservatives. Indeed, McCain needn’t worry about his age or his temper becoming a campaign issue; rather it is his core positions on major issues which will cause him the most problems in the fall campaign.
Another problem for McCain is his unwillingness to point out to the public the differences between himself and Senator Obama. No one likes negative political advertising, but the unfortunate fact of the matter is that negative political ads work. If McCain allows Obama to bombard him with negative ads without answering them, McCain will be toast. It would behoove McCain to remember that Obama’s supporters see him as a quasi-religious messiah-type figure; they’re going to vote for him no matter what he says or does. Senator McCain doesn’t have that luxury with his own supporters and he is going to have to work to get them to the polls on election day.
PREDICTION: Right now is too soon to make an accurate prediction on the outcome of the fall election. Either candidate, if they were to run a smart and purpose-driven campaign, could end up pulling this one out. What it is really going to come down to is who is hurt more by the negatives they bring into the campaign, Obama or McCain.
