One of my colleagues at work told me about this guy he saw on cable TV who had predicted several of the last Presidential elections accurately. Having never heard of him before, I was naturally skeptical. After all, if this guy is that accurate, why isn’t he a household name? I doubted my colleague’s recollection of what he saw, but it turns out that I will owe him an apology tomorrow for doubting him. Turns out, the gentleman’s name is Professor Allan Lichtman, a history professor at the American University in Washington, DC.
Professor Lichtman has come up with what he says are the “13 Keys to the White House” (one of the reasons I had trouble tracking this down was because my colleague had said their were 12 categories). According to Lichtman, if an incumbent President “wins” at least 6 of the 13 keys, he will be re-elected. Also according to him, President Obama wins 9 of the 13 keys. A complete list of the 13 keys is here, as well as Lichtman’s interpretation of the keys. You should go and read this now before I tear it to shreds. Go ahead, I’ll wait.
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OK, here we go. The absolute first thing you should notice is how subjective many of the keys are. In fact, only 6 of the keys could be said to be based solely on fact:
1) Incumbent party picks up seats in preceding mid-term.
2) There is no serious challenger for the incumbent party nomination.
3) The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4) There is no significant third party challenger.
6) Real per capita economic growth during the past term is at least equal to mean growth during the previous two terms.
7) The incumbent administration pushes through major national policy changes.
Based on facts, Obama wins 4 of these keys, leaving the GOP 2. The remaining 7 keys are almost completely subjective, and depending on your opinion of them, could arguably be scored either way.
Key 5: The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign. Lichtman rates this key a “Push” or tie, and I find that very questionable. The August 2011 jobs report said zero new jobs were created in the national economy, gas prices continue to soar, and unemployment has been over 9% for a period longer than any other since the Great Depression. On top of that, even the Union rank and file are starting to doubt Obama’s ability to improve the job outlook. Smart money says the GOP wins this key.
Key 8: There is no sustained social unrest during the previous term. Depending on how you define social unrest, a good argument could be made that the Tea Party movement, along with the Labor Unions’ violent responses to it, is social unrest. In fact, this social movement may well turn out to be responsible for the single term Obama will serve as President. GOP wins this key.
Key 9: The incumbent administration has no major scandals. Again, Lichtman gives this one to Obama, apparently totally ignoring the entire ATF/Justice Department Selling guns to Mexican drug lords situation. Also, exactly how many of his cabinet appointees had significant tax problems? Lichtman says that the Obama Administration was “squeaky clean.” He’s either insane or delusional. GOP wins key 9.
Key 10: The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign/military affairs failure. Obama rates good as far as military matters, but foreign affairs is another matter. The disrespect he has put on display to old and trusted allies (Great Britain and Israel come to mind) has done nothing to enhance our reputation abroad. Also, Obama’s World Apology Tour has done nothing but make us look weak in front of our enemies. In fact, I can’t think of a single foreign policy achievement of this administration which isn’t military in nature. This key is a tie.
Key 11: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. Again, the Obama Administration, by largely ignoring the military strategies it trumpeted during the 2008 Election and continuing the majority of the Bush Administration’s military policies has achieved a lot of good in military affairs. However, as previously pointed out, I can’t think of a single non-military based foreign policy achievement. This key is also a tie.
Key 12: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. Lichtman gave this key to the GOP, recognizing what the media and press have been lamenting for the past several months: that whatever magic Obama had in his speeches prior to Election has lost its power This is an obvious win for the GOP.
Key 13: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Apparently candidates like Romney, Perry, and Bachmann, who draw thousands to their speeches, qualifies as “uncharismatic”. Hell, even Palin outdraws Obama on the campaign trail, and she doesn’t have the labor unions inflating the attendance figures for her. The GOP wins Key 13.
So, my interpretation of these 13 keys has the GOP at 7, and Obama at 4 with two ties. A much closer race than Lichtman predicts. Also, I hope I’ve shown the folly of his “never wrong” claim. Speaking of which, Don Surber puts the lie to this claim as well.